Ministry of Finance: Leaders of international economic organizations are full of confidence in China's economic transformation and future. The Ministry of Finance held a briefing today (9th). Relevant leaders of the Ministry of Finance introduced the main situation of the "1+10" dialogue and answered questions from reporters. Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, said that the heads of international economic organizations are full of confidence in China's economic transformation and future, and expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation with China to jointly safeguard the process of multilateralism and economic globalization. Liao Min introduced that the dialogue highlighted three key words: commitment, support and cooperation. Ten heads of international economic organizations participated in the dialogue, focusing on the theme of "building consensus on development and promoting global common prosperity", focusing on "seizing the opportunity of change, promoting the transformation and growth of the world economy", "upholding multilateralism, promoting the reform of the global economic governance system" and "China further comprehensively deepening reforms and opening up broad prospects for modernization" Liao Min said: "First, he reiterated his firm commitment to economic globalization and multilateralism; Second, it shows strong support for global economic growth and common development; Third, it has promoted the coordination and cooperation of international economic organizations. China is taking pragmatic and effective measures to intensify countercyclical adjustment, intensify the implementation of macro policies, and do everything possible to boost consumption; Further deepen reform in an all-round way, expand high-level opening to the outside world, and bring greater opportunities for world development. This is the greatest certainty of China's economy to the world economy. " Liao Min said that economic growth in all countries faces common and different challenges. Leaders of international economic organizations attending the meeting highly praised China's great progress in poverty reduction and development and its historic contribution to the world, affirmed and supported China's recent package of incremental policies, and hoped that China would continue to be a "stabilizer" and "power source" for global economic growth. Liao Min said: "We have stepped up counter-cyclical adjustment and taken pragmatic and effective measures to promote sustained economic recovery. The delegates affirmed China's positive progress in supporting economic growth and promoting structural adjustment. China is transforming from an investment-driven growth model to a consumption-and innovation-driven growth model. The successful transformation of China's economy will benefit the global economy. " Liao Min said that the contribution rate of China's economy to world economic growth has remained at around 30% for more than 10 years, and it is an important engine of global development. The underlying logic of China's economic upturn and the principle of benefiting the world have not changed, and it will continue to inject more certainty and predictability into the world economy with its own stable development. (CCTV News)According to the Interfax news agency, Ukraine reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky said that there are nearly 800,000 Russian troops in Ukraine.In 2025, the profits of the "Big Seven US Stocks" are expected to increase by only 18%. Investors are looking for new targets. It is predicted that the combined profits of the seven technology giants, namely Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla, will increase by only 18% in 2025, far lower than the 34% in 2024. Excluding NVIDIA, the biggest beneficiary of AI fanaticism, the combined profits of the other six companies will only increase by 3% in 2025. To this end, investors have begun to look for new investment targets, such as energy and biotechnology units. An 18% profit increase is a good performance for almost all industries, except for these large technology companies. At the same time, the profit increase of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is expected to reach 13%, higher than this year's 10%. In other words, these technology giants will no longer be the growth benchmarks of American companies. Julian McManus, portfolio manager of investment company Janus Henderson, said: "The Big Seven may not be the engine of market growth as it was in the past year." To this end, investors have responded. According to EPFR Global data, in the week ending December 4th, the IT sector suffered the largest capital outflow in six weeks, reaching $1.4 billion, while small-cap stocks attracted $4.6 billion in capital inflow. (Global Market Broadcast)
Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December by CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that a new round of policy starting guns will be fired, and the policy inflection point will be reconfirmed, making it clear that the macro policy will be strengthened and effective in 2025. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a "more active fiscal policy" and enriched the policy toolbox, which may indicate that in 2025, both deficit ratio in a narrow sense and deficit ratio in a broad sense will be significantly improved, and the focus of policy development is also expected to be marginal in the field of people's livelihood consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, this Politburo meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. This is the first time that China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy after 2010. It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. From the perspective of domestic demand policy, the statement of expanding domestic demand in an all-round way, especially "vigorously boosting consumption", exceeds market expectations. With the support of the existing policies coming into effect and the policy of increasing domestic demand, the improvement of domestic demand may have strong certainty and sustainability. In addition, in terms of structural policies, on the one hand, the meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to "stabilize the property market and the stock market", and the importance of the stock market continues to be highlighted, and real estate is still in the policy landing period; On the other hand, the meeting emphasized that "scientific and technological innovation leads the development of new quality productive forces", and new industries and future industries are expected to receive further policy support.Egypt condemns Israel's occupation of the buffer zone between Israel and Syria: It violates international law. On the 9th local time, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement, strongly condemning Israel's occupation of the buffer zone with Syria and its adjacent areas, calling it an occupation of Syrian territory and an infringement of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The statement said that Israel used the vacuum period in Syria to occupy more Syrian territory, which violated international law. Egypt calls on the UN Security Council and the international community to shoulder their responsibilities and take a firm stand against Israel's attack on Syria to ensure Syria's national sovereignty. On the 9th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz ordered the IDF to fully control the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. Katz said in a statement that the Israel Defense Forces must establish a "safe zone without heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructure" in southern Syria, which includes areas outside the buffer zone. In addition, Katz also instructed the military to establish contact with the Druze community and other people in southern Syria.Baotou Steel Group and Huawei signed a strategic cooperation agreement to cooperate in the fields of rare earth digitalization and rare earth supply. On December 6, Baotou Steel Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. ("Huawei"). The signing of this strategic cooperation agreement between the two parties will cooperate in the fields of digital talent training, smart mines, data management, belt intelligence, rare earth digitalization and rare earth supply, and jointly promote the digital transformation of enterprises and the innovative development of both parties.
Minister Wang Wentao met with WTO Director-General Ivira. On December 9, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with WTO Director-General Ivira in Beijing. The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on WTO reform and deepening cooperation between China and the WTO. Wang Wentao said that the reform of the WTO is of great significance in coping with common global challenges, and China is willing to make joint efforts with all parties to promote positive progress in the reform. China supports the WTO to achieve more results in the field of development and calls for the normal operation of the dispute settlement mechanism. China supports the early incorporation of the investment facilitation agreement into the WTO legal framework, the conclusion of the second-stage agreement on fishery subsidies, the conclusion of the negotiations on the joint statement on e-commerce, and the promotion of multilateral trade rules to keep pace with the times. (Ministry of Commerce)Turkish Foreign Minister: Turkey will continue to help Syrian refugees return to their homes "safely and voluntarily". Turkish Foreign Minister Feidan said on the 9th that Turkey will continue to make efforts to help Syrian refugees it receives return to their homes "safely and voluntarily". On the same day, Feidan said at the meeting of Turkish diplomatic envoys abroad that Turkey is willing to provide support for Syria's reconstruction. "We have always advocated ensuring peace and stability in Syria through international consensus." Feidan stressed that the extremist organization "Islamic State" and the terrorist organization PKK must not benefit from the turmoil in Syria.Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England: The repricing of the national debt after the budget is indeed very orderly.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide